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Written by DJ Scream
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Tuesday, 17 August 2010 20:07 |
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One of the biggest keys to success in fantasy is drafting. Some people can walk in with a sheet of paper, a pencil, some luck on their side and pluck names seemingly out of thin air and finish with a top team. Many of us are not able to be that fortunate. So, I prep and research and get ready almost as if I was a real GM. I watch countless hours of pre-season football. (64 game to be specific.) I am constantly following the beat writers on Twitter, reading their tweet logs. I get asked all the time how can I be better than I was last year? Well it starts on draft night. Here are the 10 things that you can do now to get a leg up on the competition come draft night!
1) Know the league rules, don't just assume! Go to the page of your leagues site and look up the rules. Know the scoring system. Is this your first year in a PPR (Point Per Reception) league? Know what players have increased and decreased their value in your leagues scoring system. Are there unique line up rules? Can you start 2 TE's or 2 QB's?
2) Think about how you want to build a team. This starts with how you get your players, are you drafting or using an auction format? Now spend some time laying out the different ways a team can be built. If you are drafting think about draft slot position and what that means. If you are in an auction think about budgets and how much money you want to spend on positions and players.
3) Mock! Mock ! Mock!This is the place to test out all your theories. Nowadays there are so many free leagues and mock sites, go get after it! Try everything out, then sit down look at what you did right and look at what you did wrong. Look the teams over and see what teams you like the best and what teams you like the least! Practice makes perfect! Once you get to the big night, know that no matter how many Mocks you did, that night will not go according to how you have planned, but know that you are more prepared to handle the curve balls now that you have hit them before. :)
4) The numbers will lie, DON'T trust them! I Call this the Chad Johnson rule, back when he was well Chad Johnson not Chad Ochocinco. Scoring 180 points in one week may be great, but not if you then go 3 more weeks and don't score 180 total! Some players will put up great numbers and they do it in bunches. Maybe they have 4 big games and a bunch of games that barely mean anything. Did they have a career day last year? A back that runs for 220 yards in Week 17 probably will not do you any good if your championship game was in Week 16! I always go in and take week 17 stats out of the players when I am looking at them to know what they mean to me. I want a guy who is consistent. Some other owner can take that weekly boom or bust player. I'd rather have a guy who is gonna constantly get me points every week.
5) Look at the team philosophy. The Jets this year are a great example. Thomas Jones had a great year and he is gone. But look at the numbers and the amount of times they ran the ball last year. The carries are high. So, you know that the Head Coach and the Offensive coordinator will be able to use 2 backs and they both can pile up numbers. Should not be much of change here. Now perhaps you have a player who this year has a new Head Coach or a new Offensive Coordinator and perhaps last year they played in one system and this year they have a totally different system. That can be a red flag you may want to adjust your player rankings on this.
6) Poker face. I love in my local leagues when guys just talk, talk, talk and want to tell me who they love, who they hate and who their sleepers are. Thanks for giving me your draft plan! :) Don't be that person. But do follow the lead of real GM's give disinformation. Talk up players you hate, talk down players you love. But listen more than you talk, for in fantasy, silence is golden. Don't wear your favorite team's jersey to draft night!
7) Get familiar with your league site. Many owners will just set their line ups and do their add drops and that is it. But today many sites have great features. Does your league site have an App? (program that allows you to control your team on your mobile device.) Perhaps a mobile site that is easy to access from your cell phone? Will it send you text messages about your players live scoring updates? Can you set a watch list on players? Many things you will want to know how to use.
8) Know the real NFL Schedule. Know the bye weeks. The "Fantasy Freakin Football Draft Kit" has an excellent item in it. The "Bastard Sked" (you long time listeners know the back story here) What a great item this is. This will help you know how to pick your bench players. Lets say you grab Peyton Manning as your QB. Chances are you now will not need to worry about a back up at all. Cause you know that Manning has a Week 7 bye, so the teams playing this week who have QB's that often go undrafted are Jac vs KC, Cle v NO, SF vs Car, STL vs TB. Guys like Garrard, Cassel, Delhomme, A. Smith, Moore (Claussen) and Bradford might be available. These are all guys you can grab when that bye week roles around, thus allowing you an extra spot on your bench to grab a RB or WR that you may need right now. I say this all the time to my kids on my Pop Warner football team, anyone can be good once. But greatness is measured by your ability to do it again and again. Well all you need is just one good game and then your star goes back in.
9) Know your league’s history. You can usually go into your league’s web site this time of year and look at last year’s stats and see who scored what points. This surprises most people, but bit of fantasy trivia. Last year’s high scoring team defense in most leagues standard Yahoo, ESPN, CBS Sports was the San Francisco 49'ers. They are typically the 7th to 10th defense drafted in these same leagues.
10) Make a street list. Every NFL GM has what’s called a "Street List". This is a list of players who are not on any teams in the NFL that if/when something happens to players on their team are the first guys they go out and get. Some people do this after a draft, I do both. Looking at average draft position sheets or top player ranking sheets you know that if you are in a 10 team league with 16 roster spots that is 160 players. So take the Fantasy Freakin’ Football Top 215 in the draft kit and make a short list of 10-15 guys that won't be on your team or anyone else's for that matte,r but if you need them, you want them right away. Always be prepared! |
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Written by DJ Scream
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Wednesday, 04 August 2010 09:02 |
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As much as I would like to ignore this and just move on, It just wouldn't be football pre-season if were didn't talk about Brett Favre retiring. Let's break this down. Now, while some all sports networks would like to ram this down our throats and milk this headline for every last viewer they can, I am here to show you the error of their ways.
Most die hard fans who follow the game will tell you they don't believe the story. First off, the excuses he makes. His ankle. The man has proven he is a machine. The ankle is no issue, heck his ankle is probably better right now than it was at this time last year. The next excuse, Favre doesn't believe he can physically produce the season that he did last year. LOL, really? This guy has thrown more interceptions than anyone in NFL history. He does that because he has total confidence in his ability, he never thinks he can't do it. The reasons why this is happening? The obvious one is iff the MN Vikings were to just let Favre skip camp for a couple of weeks, how could they ever now, or in the future expect any of their players to come to camp on time? The Vikes brass is at fault for this as much as Favre himself. Don't get it twisted by Favre saying he is retiring (again), this buys the management some time. Then in 2 or 3 weeks when he changes his mine and says "I'm Back" the Vikings are not painted into a corner, they have plausible deniability in the future with players. They can say to their future players who don’t want to report, that he was retired.
Let’s look back at the dates and times of previous Favre retirements:
-May of 2009: Favre has surgery on bad shoulder after one season with the Jets.
-July 28, 2009: HC Brad Childress tells reporters that Favre will not be coming out of retirement.
-Aug. 12, 2009: Fan appreciation day in Mankato training camp winding down MN to return to Twin Cities home.
-Aug 14, 2009: MN beats IND in first pre-season game of the 2009 season.
-Aug 18, 2009: He's back! Favre signs a one year deal for 12 million with a club option on a second year at 15 million.
-Aug 21, 2009: Second pre-season game, Favre makes a token appearance to start the game.
The above timeline is what I like to call the “Favre play-book” on skipping camp. I would look for a similar schedule this time around. Perhaps he takes a few more days, but I expect to see him playing in the 3rd pre-season game for MN this year, which is in MN on Saturday August 28, 2010. Just in case you are curious, the second pre-season game is in San Francisco, Sunday August 22, 2010.
You can see a much more detailed Favre timeline here: http://nbcsports.msnbc.com/id/32147031/ns/sports-nfl
Sure money could come into play a bit here, but lets keep it real. Favre, his wife, Agent Bus Cook, and the Vikes brain trust all know he will be back and he will play this year. But hey, thanks Favre and ESPN for giving us all something to talk about for the next two weeks. |
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Written by DJ Scream
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Sunday, 22 November 2009 09:23 |
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This time of year the fantasy world ends up on it head, as coaches start getting fired and teams get ravaged by injuries. So back-ups, rookies, and younger players get their chance to shine. Players who may have started in a team’s dog house are now in the teams spot light. The elite teams start to hold players out of the line-up more, trying to protect their careers, late season playing ability and current injuries. Gathering and knowing what is going on in the information world of the NFL is the key to success right now.
Let’s get you caught up on what you need to know as you sit down today to make your line up.
-RB Cedric Benson is hurt right now. It is unclear as to how this shakes out, but CIN added cast off RB Larry Johnson to the mix. Johnson who is slow, but powerful and not a great pass blocker, could at least be a willing pass blocker on a winning team. But I see this situation very much the same as the one in New England: they will use all 3 (Leonard & Scott) and go with the hot hand.
-QB DEN Kyle Orton is hurt and may miss a few weeks. This brings back once heralded rookie Chris Simms. While Simms has some rust, he does have a very good arm. Look for DEN to keep the playbook simple, but take some shots with deep balls as they try to build up the confidence of Simms.
-WR Sidney Rice is a legit fantasy WR. Not a franchise WR right now, but this guy should be owned by every fantasy team and starting every week. He is the latest in WR who turn into stars when old number 4 is chucking the ball.
-BUF fired head coach Dick Jauron and Defensive coordinator Perry Ferrell named interim Head Coach. Look for an approach to the Offense like Mike Singletary brought in: run the ball, control the clock, short quick passing game and avoid turnovers.
-HOU RB Steve Slaton will get the start, but Moats will also get carries. This is very much a play and pray situation for both backs.
-NO RB Reggie Bush is out.
-PHI RB LeSean McCoy is in as Westy is out for several more weeks.
-Without Westbrook it should be common practice for the eagles to throw 40 times every week, keep this in mind as you have Eagles players.
-NE WR Randy draws NYJ CB Derrel Revis again. Moss’ career numbers are nothing against this guy. Play and pray. If you can put some one like S. Rice or M. Austin in your line-up instead go for it, but don't sit him down just cause. Brady is a different QB right now, a better one than he was when they first met this season so Moss can still make plays.
This time of year it gets hard for fantasy owners if you are one of the good teams in your league. You’re gonna be tempted to try and reinvent the wheel. But, as you will learn like all the others before you, those who reinvent the wheel always come up with a square! Make the smart moves and win with them, don't try to be a hero. What you have been doing all year has got you this far, don't change and have it end up costing you. Now for those owners in the other boat, do the opposite. Take crazy chances with your line-up: bench Randy Moss this week because he has Revis all over him and start Percy Harvin instead. It can't hurt you and if you’re wrong, well hey no one's gonna care. But whatever you do, don't just give up, it's not fair to every other owner in your league. Take pride in
playing your spoiler role.
Continued good luck as always and go make your own luck!
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Written by DJ Scream
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Saturday, 14 November 2009 16:40 |
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We have reached that time in the fantasy season where you stop being able to get tips. Everything is about what back-ups are gonna be studs down the stretch and what players are going to come from nowhere to make a difference. You start breaking down the match-ups. Who are the better starts? Who has the best schedules for Weeks 14, 15, and 16? The byes are almost over and now you can start stashing players on your roster, instead of trying to figure out how to survive the bye weeks. Now is the time you have to start getting your roster ready to dominate the fantasy play-offs. If you wait another week or two, you will see that all the other owners are doing the same thing, time to get a jump on them!
Staying up on information is a great way to ensure the most fantasy success right now. You need to know who is hurt and how bad they are hurt. Who is in practice and who is not in practice? Who is in trouble with the coach? What coaches are on the hot seat? What teams are in rebuilding mode? This is stuff you just can't get Sunday mornings an hour before kick-off. You have to check daily. Now is the time that a 6th round draft pick will get a shot to put up some fantasy numbers because their team is struggling either with performance or injuries.
Here are just some things to know as we head into the weekend:
-It's never a good sign for weekend games when a player does not practice on Fridays. Get in the habit of checking and seeing who did not practice on Fridays.
-CAR WR Steve Smith is having a tough season, but absolutely owns the Atlanta Falcons. He has over 20 catches for almost 400 yards in the last 3 games.
-Miami's running game this week should be off the hook, both Brown and Williams are must starts.
-WR Devon Bess had 14 targets last week. He is a guy who just gets open and catches the ball unlike Ted Ginn who drops balls and runs very poor routes.
-TB QB Josh Freeman had a solid game last week, but don't get too excited by his fantasy production. He is a very, very bad NFL QB right now and quality coaches will tear him apart. He has a bad release point and that compounds the problem. He has not learned to throw with touch yet.
-MN versus the Lions… Favre has made a complete turnaround since his first meeting with the Lions, look for an offensive explosion this week.
-Lions have very slow corners and MN has speed to kill in Harvin and Berrian.
-Bad news for Mike Simms-Walker owners, as he draws NYJ CB D. Revis this week. Look at the numbers they don't lie. 2 catches for 12 yards is a very real score for MSW this week.
If you are looking for some players to grab this week, therer is not much. One guy I really like is the WR in Cincy, Lavernues Coles. They have no TE and 85 will start drawing double teams. Also, can't but help notice after getting rid of the power slow running game they had with Larry Johnson, KC RB's were up near 5 yards per carry. Go ahead take a flyer they're on Jamal Charles and Kolby Smith. Fred Taylor may be coming back in a couple of weeks, but Lawrence Maroney is looking solid. Bryant Johnson WR DET could be a player again with Calvin Johnson having made his return.
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